Februar, März und April 2009

März, April und Mai 2009

Mai, Juni, Juli 2009

Nichts verändert sich so konstant wie die Wettervorhersagen. Besonders dann, wenn es langfristige Ausblicke sind. Die NOAA veröffentlicht jeden Monat einen Update ihrer Wettermodelle und diese werden im Getreidemarkt recht stark verfolgt. Die Ergebnisse werden auf der Website des National Weather Service des Climate Prediction Centers  NOAA CPC Webpage veröffentlicht.

Betrachten wir uns das erste Halbjahr erscheinen keine großartigen Probleme für einen Großteil des Maisgürtels zu sein und nur die südlichen Plains müssen mit zuwenig Regen und überdurchschnittlichen Temperaturen rechnen.

Diese Vorhersage geht davon aus, dass wir in den kommenden sechs Monaten kein La Nina oder El Nino bekommen werden.

Ich möchte Ihnen eine sehr gute Website vorstellen, die eine Vielzahl von Informationen zu Hurrikanen in den USA liefert.

www.stormpulse.com

Wer gerne bunte Bilder sich anschaut wie meiner einer, der wird seine helle Freude an dieser Website haben. Für alle Energy Trader noch angemerkt. Die NYMEX wird den Computer Handel bereits um 16:00 Uhr am Sonntag beginnen.

Hurricane Ike sporting 105 mph winds, says Shell E&P Drilling Platform
At 2:45pm EDT, a Shell International Drilling Platform (also known as NDBC buoy 42361) recorded Hurricane Ikes southeastern eyewall at 105 mph at a pressure of 967 mb: Meanwhile, a buoy stationed off the southeast coast of Galveston, TX is observing 17 ft.

Watch Ike make landfall with radar (NEXRAD) on the Stormpulse map
Weve been promising it for a while, and now on the brink of Hurricane Ikes landfall into northeastern Texas, we are pleased to announce that weve added radar as a layer to the Stormpulse map.

Interrogative statements commonly found in our Gmail inbox
To improve our communication, we now have a Frequently Asked Questions page.

Like Stormpulse? Leave a tip with Tipjoy.
This morning we released a small update that allows appreciative users to tip Stormpulse, Inc.

Stormpulse product page on Facebook
If youre not too busy tracking the tropics For those of you that use Facebook, you can show your support for our site and join the conversation about storms, new features, and bugs by befriending Stormpulse.

Thank you: A summary of Stormpulse feedback in recent days
First of all with Hurricane Gustav less than 40 hours from landfall, our thoughts are with the people of Louisiana.

Spaghetti served fresh: Forecast models on the Stormpulse.com map
This morning we launched a new release of our interactive map and website software.

Invest 94 to become Tropical Storm Gustav? The early morning report from buoy 42059.
According to a buoy stationed just east of the high-potential tropical disturbance also known as Invest 94L, steady winds of 25 mph and gusts of 31 mph were recorded out of the SSE at 5:50am this morning.

Cities added to our hurricane-tracking map
This afternoon we added the following cities to our interactive hurricane-tracking map: Montgomery, AL Dover, DE Cedar Key, FL Cocoa Beach, FL Fort Pierce, FL Marathon, FL Panama City, FL Saint Marks, FL Venice, FL Augusta, GA Columbus, GA Buras, LA New Iberia, LA Shreveport, LA Hyannis, MA Nantucket, MA Annapolis, MD Augusta, ME Bar Harbor, ME Eastport, ME Gulfport, MS Jackson, MS Greensboro, NC Morehead City, NC Raleigh, NC Trenton, NJ Newark, NJ Providence, RI Columbia, SC Myrtle Beach, SC Fort Worth, TX Freeport, TX Port Arthur, [.

What are the chances? Track Tropical Storm Fay with wind probabilities on the Stormpulse map
This afternoon we launched a new feature on the site that should help answer the question of when can I expect winds in my area? The National Hurricane Center publishes a product called Wind Speed Probabilities in sync with their Forecast Advisories that provide percentages indicating when a storms winds are most likely to affect a [.

0830  AM EDT  HURRICANE IKE  UPDATE
All of the overnight data with regard to the potential track for hurricane IKE continues to be really bad news for the Houston metro area as the hurricane models continue to shift north with every new run.
What is particularly disquieting from my point of view is that the European model which has been the model of choice over the past four days regarding Ike… which was the first model to show the northwestern long before any of the other models or hurricane models showed it… and the model which is the most consistent with his northwest turn and has never varied once… is now early this morning taking IKE very close if not directly through the Houston metro area.
note the  DUE  north track
  0Z  THURSDAY     EUROPEAN  48 HRS

0Z    THURSDAY   EUROPEAN  72 HOURS

In addition  the 0z  and    6z hurricane models are also showing the trend as you can see from these links. Clearly the new  6z hurricane models show a landfall now north of Corpus Christi   and much closer towards Houston.
0z   HURRICANE MODELS

6Z  HURRICANE  MODELS

The   trend in the Hurricane Models continued overnight  and the pressure  has  dropped  to  944 MB   so   based  STRICTLY on the pressure   IKE  is now clearly at a category  4  Hurricane … BUT the winds have yet to come up… so they are still stuck a category 2   level winds. There are several reasons for this all of which are pretty technical but eventually it seems a high probability that the winds will begin to come up over the next 24 hours and if that happens we will be looking at a solid category four hurricane at the time of landfall.
Another interesting aspect of this hurricane  will be its trajectory which again is going to enable the system to remain fairly strong right up until landfall.  More importantly the track of IKE is going to develop a powerful southeasterly Fetch  of high winds from the central Gulf driving towards the central upper Texas Gulf Coast as well as western Louisiana. Huge ocean waves will develop and start showing up in the bouys within the next 12 hours along the Gulf Coast  and the flooding potential for areas such as Sabine Pass  and Galveston Bay will be significant …. and if in fact the wind speeds to reach category for status with IKE the prolonged Southeast exposed fetch across the western Gulf of Mexico could really do a number on the coastal areas as well as potentially the refineries just in land in these regions with significant flooding.
Again I do want to emphasize that while the model data has now reached a strong consensus continues to show a sharp turn to the northwest occurring before landfall there is still some RISK that the turn will occur after the system makes landfall. In this possible scenario  IKE crashes into Corpus Christi then turns the northwest and then north tracking over Dallas.
This is scenario would mean no direct hit for the Houston area and not nearly as severe conditions for much of the Texas natural gas production areas. Interestingly a lot of relief and rescue efforts as well as evacuations   from Houston appear to be headed towards or staged out of Dallas and in this possible scenario Dallas could see Priest back conditions as the core of the  hurricane… much weekend…  passes over Dallas.
  NEXT   UPDATE   1130 AM   EDT
DT 
804   307 8070

MORNING       GUSTAV  UPDATE

1150   AM     8/29

Lots  to talk about  with   GUSTAV…

The  Hurricane  center  did NOT  upgrade  GUSTAV  to hurricane   even though  the    Radar  loops from  Cuba   clearly  show an Eye.  In addition the  New   satellite   pictures   show an eye    forming… and this can be clearly   seen on the  IR  pictures… 

The  reasoning is   that the  recon Plane is  now  enroute and it will be there  by 1230-1PM … so if   they do find a  Hurricane   the Hurricane center can  always  upgrade with a   bulletin at  2pm

The   12z  NEW   hurricane  models    still show a  cat 4  Hurricane in he  GULF… and he may undergo  explosive intensification  in the  northwest caribbean   Saturday…  BEFORE   entering  the  Gulf…

Again  let me emphasize  that  I will be  issuing  statements  over  the  Long  Holiday  weekend.  if you  want  statements   issued   to a  HOME  or alternate    email   just send it to me.

12z   HURRICANE  MODELS… note  the bend to the  LEFT  at the end of all of these tracks

This  Link  shows the various   models  showing    Gustav’s  possible  intensity  day 1-5…
Note  how   3 of them now show a cat 4  and  6  show a  cat  3  Hurricane. 

Gustav ist heute das Thema bei CNBC und Crude Oil notiert schon wieder über der 120 US$ pro Barrell. Noch beeindruckender ist die Performance des Natural Gas Futures in den letzten 4 Tagen. Der Oktober Kontrakt erreichte am 25.08 ein Tief bei 7,739 US$ und notiert aktuell bei 8,623 US$. Dies ist ein Plus von 11,4%. Bei Überschreiten der 9 US$ könnte eine Bodenbildung abgeschlossen sei und Preise um 10,00-11,00 US$ wären denkbar. Die Hurrikan Saison ist sehr volatil und nur was für ausgewachsene.

War die Hurrican Season bisher recht ruhig, scheint doch einiges los zu sein im Atlantik. Das aktuelle Bild zeigt drei weitere Systeme, die das Potential für einen Hurrikan haben.

Gestern wurde der nächste tropische Sturm mit dem Namen Gustav getauft und schon braut sich wieder ein potentieller Sturm. Dieser wird nach ersten Voraussagen aber an der Ostküste gen Norden ziehen und nicht den Golf von Mexico erreichen. Bei Gustav ist man sich noch nicht so sicher, doch scheint sich eine etwas weiter westliche Route durchzusetzen. Dies würde ein Landeinfall im Gebiet von Yucatan Peninsula bedeuten. Es bleibt spannend und Sie sollten die Website des National Hurrican Center des öfteren mal besuchen.